The changing health needs of the UK population.

The demographics of the UK population are changing and so is the need for health care. In this Health Policy, we explore the current health of the population, the changing health needs, and future threats to health. Relative to other high-income countries, the UK is lagging on many health outcomes, such as life expectancy and infant mortality, and there is a growing burden of mental illness. Successes exist, such as the striking improvements in oral health, but inequalities in health persist as well. The growth of the ageing population relative to the working-age population, the rise of multimorbidity, and persistent health inequalities, particularly for preventable illness, are all issues that the National Health Service (NHS) will face in the years to come. Meeting the challenges of the future will require an increased focus on health promotion and disease prevention, involving a more concerted effort to understand and tackle the multiple social, environmental, and economic factors that lie at the heart of health inequalities. The immediate priority of the NHS will be to mitigate the wider and long-term health consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic, but it must also strengthen its resilience to reduce the impact of other threats to health, such as the UK leaving the EU, climate change, and antimicrobial resistance.

Estimated impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on cancer services and excess 1-year mortality in people with cancer and multimorbidity: near real-time data on cancer care, cancer deaths and a population-based cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on cancer care services and overall (direct and indirect) excess deaths in people with cancer. METHODS: We employed near real-time weekly data on cancer care to determine the adverse effect of the pandemic on cancer services. We also used these data, together with national death registrations until June 2020 to model deaths, in excess of background (pre-COVID-19) mortality, in people with cancer. Background mortality risks for 24 cancers with and without COVID-19-relevant comorbidities were obtained from population-based primary care cohort (Clinical Practice Research Datalink) on 3 862 012 adults in England. RESULTS: Declines in urgent referrals (median=-70.4%) and chemotherapy attendances (median=-41.5%) to a nadir (lowest point) in the pandemic were observed. By 31 May, these declines have only partially recovered; urgent referrals (median=-44.5%) and chemotherapy attendances (median=-31.2%). There were short-term excess death registrations for cancer (without COVID-19), with peak relative risk (RR) of 1.17 at week ending on 3 April. The peak RR for all-cause deaths was 2.1 from week ending on 17 April. Based on these findings and recent literature, we modelled 40% and 80% of cancer patients being affected by the pandemic in the long-term. At 40% affected, we estimated 1-year total (direct and indirect) excess deaths in people with cancer as between 7165 and 17 910, using RRs of 1.2 and 1.5, respectively, where 78% of excess deaths occured in patients with ≥1 comorbidity. CONCLUSIONS: Dramatic reductions were detected in the demand for, and supply of, cancer services which have not fully recovered with lockdown easing. These may contribute, over a 1-year time horizon, to substantial excess mortality among people with cancer and multimorbidity. It is urgent to understand how the recovery of general practitioner, oncology and other hospital services might best mitigate these long-term excess mortality risks.

Age and Multimorbidity Predict Death Among COVID-19 Patients: Results of the SARS-RAS Study of the Italian Society of Hypertension.

Several factors have been proposed to explain the high death rate of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak, including hypertension and hypertension-related treatment with Renin Angiotensin System inhibitors. Also, age and multimorbidity might be confounders. No sufficient data are available to demonstrate their independent role. We designed a cross-sectional, observational, multicenter, nationwide survey in Italy to verify whether renin-angiotensin system inhibitors are related to COVID-19 severe outcomes. We analyzed information from Italian patients diagnosed with COVID-19, admitted in 26 hospitals. One thousand five hundred ninety-one charts (male, 64.1%; 66±0.4 years) were recorded. At least 1 preexisting condition was observed in 73.4% of patients, with hypertension being the most represented (54.9%). One hundred eighty-eight deaths were recorded (11.8%; mean age, 79.6±0.9 years). In nonsurvivors, older age, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, chronic kidney disease, coronary artery diseases, and heart failure were more represented than in survivors. The Charlson Comorbidity Index was significantly higher in nonsurvivors compared with survivors (4.3±0.15 versus 2.6±0.05; P<0.001). ACE (angiotensin-converting enzyme) inhibitors, diuretics, and ß-blockers were more frequently used in nonsurvivors than in survivors. After correction by multivariate analysis, only age (P=0.0001), diabetes mellitus (P=0.004), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (P=0.011), and chronic kidney disease (P=0.004) but not hypertension predicted mortality. Charlson Comorbidity Index, which cumulates age and comorbidities, predicts mortality with an exponential increase in the odds ratio by each point of score. In the COVID-19 outbreak, mortality is predicted by age and the presence of comorbidities. Our data do not support a significant interference of hypertension and antihypertensive therapy on COVID-19 lethality. Registration- URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT04331574.

Cardiometabolic multimorbidity is associated with a worse Covid-19 prognosis than individual cardiometabolic risk factors: a multicentre retrospective study (CoViDiab II).

BACKGROUND: Cardiometabolic disorders may worsen Covid-19 outcomes. We investigated features and Covid-19 outcomes for patients with or without diabetes, and with or without cardiometabolic multimorbidity. METHODS: We collected and compared data retrospectively from patients hospitalized for Covid-19 with and without diabetes, and with and without cardiometabolic multimorbidity (defined as ≥ two of three risk factors of diabetes, hypertension or dyslipidaemia). Multivariate logistic regression was used to assess the risk of the primary composite outcome (any of mechanical ventilation, admission to an intensive care unit [ICU] or death) in patients with diabetes and in those with cardiometabolic multimorbidity, adjusting for confounders. RESULTS: Of 354 patients enrolled, those with diabetes (n = 81), compared with those without diabetes (n = 273), had characteristics associated with the primary composite outcome that included older age, higher prevalence of hypertension and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), higher levels of inflammatory markers and a lower PaO2/FIO2 ratio. The risk of the primary composite outcome in the 277 patients who completed the study as of May 15th, 2020, was higher in those with diabetes (Adjusted Odds Ratio (adjOR) 2.04, 95%CI 1.12-3.73, p = 0.020), hypertension (adjOR 2.31, 95%CI: 1.37-3.92, p = 0.002) and COPD (adjOR 2.67, 95%CI 1.23-5.80, p = 0.013). Patients with cardiometabolic multimorbidity were at higher risk compared to patients with no cardiometabolic conditions (adjOR 3.19 95%CI 1.61-6.34, p = 0.001). The risk for patients with a single cardiometabolic risk factor did not differ with that for patients with no cardiometabolic risk factors (adjOR 1.66, 0.90-3.06, adjp = 0.10). CONCLUSIONS: Patients with diabetes hospitalized for Covid-19 present with high-risk features. They are at increased risk of adverse outcomes, likely because diabetes clusters with other cardiometabolic conditions.